From Starting Grid to Race Result: Las Vegas Shows How Deceiving a Strong Qualifying Can Be

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 04: Chase Briscoe, driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, during the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 04, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
3–5 minutes

Bobby Travis · NASCAR/IndyCar Correspondent

Joe Gibbs Racing took the first four starting spots in qualifying, but only Chase Briscoe turned that into a win. For many in the field, the distance between starting position and the checkered flag told a completely different story.

At the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the fifth of ten Cup Series Chase races, Chase Briscoe won convincingly on Sunday ahead of Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick. But anyone reading the weekend through just these three names misses the real story: between Saturday morning’s practice session, Joe Gibbs Racing’s dominant qualifying, and Sunday evening’s race result, many drivers experienced massive shifts, and this very movement tells us more about the state of the Chase than the pure results at the top.

JGR locks down the first four starting spots, but only Briscoe cashes in

In Saturday qualifying, Joe Gibbs Racing with Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Bell, and Briscoe actually held the first two full rows, a first in the team’s history. That only one win came from that on Sunday shows how little a dominant starting lineup is worth over 267 laps on the 1.5-mile tri-oval when the race unfolds in between.

Hamlin, starting from pole position, spun in lap 78 with no outside contact, then ran with a damaged splitter and fought fuel pressure issues in the final race segment. In the end, only a 16th-place finish. His two teammates from second and third fared even worse: Ty Gibbs took a penalty for excessive pit road speed from the second-place starting spot and could only manage 17th, Christopher Bell dropped from third with power steering problems all the way to 23rd and finished even a lap down. Only Briscoe, starting fourth, actually translated his qualifying form into race pace, led 175 of 267 laps, and won convincingly at the end.

The movers: Blaney, van Gisbergen, and Logano make up ground

While three of four JGR starters fell apart, others capitalized on the tight field behind the lead group for a real jump forward. Ryan Blaney started from 20th and finished fifth, a gain of 15 positions that catapulted him right into the top-five point battle. Shane van Gisbergen moved from 25th up to ninth, Joey Logano climbed from 23rd to tenth.

Even bigger was Noah Gragson’s jump, who after a tire failure in practice went in without a time for qualifying and worked through the field from dead last, 36th on the grid, all the way up to 20th. Austin Hill managed to go from 33rd to 22nd. Both cases show that tight traffic and restarts on a mid-range oval like Las Vegas can be made up over the full distance, even from deep in the field.

The fallers: strong starting spots, disappointing mid-field results

On the flip side, several drivers who had positioned themselves well in qualifying dropped significantly. Ryan Preece fell from 12th to 28th, two laps down. Ross Chastain, starting from 17th, could only manage 30th, also two laps back. Brad Keselowski also lost eight positions from 16th and ended up in 24th.

In the middle of the field, meanwhile, drivers generally stayed within expectations: Austin Cindric turned seventh on the grid into fourth at the finish, William Byron went from eighth to sixth, Bubba Wallace confirmed ninth on the grid with eighth at the checkered flag. For this group, which neither spectacularly climbed nor collapsed, the weekend was simply solid, which has its value in the tight Chase as well.

What the weekend means for the championship

NASCAR Cup Series
  1. 1. Kyle Larson 2318 pts.
  2. 2. Denny Hamlin 2278 pts.
  3. 3. Christopher Bell 2263 pts.
  4. 4. Joey Logano 2247 pts.
  5. 5. Ryan Blaney 2238 pts.

In the overall standings, Kyle Larson continues to lead after this fifth of ten Chase races with 2318 points ahead of Denny Hamlin with 2278 and Christopher Bell with 2263 points. Only 55 points separate the top three, just 110 points lie between Larson and Ty Gibbs in eighth. Especially Bell and Ty Gibbs, who both turned a strong qualifying into a disappointing race result, need to be careful that such weekends don’t repeat themselves in the decisive Chase phase.

Briscoe, on the other hand, with his second season win not only took home the full 75 points but also worked his way past Ty Gibbs and Reddick in the overall standings from eighth to sixth, just four points behind Blaney. With five Chase races remaining, the field at the top stays so tight that a weekend like this in Las Vegas, with its big swings between starting position and the checkered flag, seems almost programmatic for the decisive phase of the season.